In the early stages of developing the fan misery index, one of the authors made an off-handed comment that he thought the current misery of the Detroit sports fan was unprecedented. Since this is pretty strong language for statisticians, the author’s son-in-law challenged him to provide evidence that could back up his claim.
Well, several of our previous articles have lent some hints for this “unprecedented” claim, but they have primarily focused on the “not even close” nature of Detroit’s city misery. So, let’s go back a bit in history and see where Detroit’s .364 five-year winning percentage from 2018-2022 falls relative to other cities over different five-year horizons.
We will go back to 2012 and gather all the five-year intervals for each city up to the present. This will provide seven five-year intervals for the thirteen 4-sport cities.1 Therefore, we will have 91 observations—seven for each of the 13 cities. Table A provides the top ten five-year winning percentages and the bottom ten five-year winning percentages dating back to 2012.
| 4-Sport City | Years | Average Winning % | Standard Deviation |
| Boston | 2015-2019 | .653 | 2.88 |
| Boston | 2014-2018 | .633 | 2.49 |
| Boston | 2016-2020 | .633 | 2.48 |
| Boston | 2013-2017 | .621 | 2.25 |
| Boston | 2017-2021 | .621 | 2.24 |
| Boston | 2018-2022 | .607 | 1.97 |
| Boston | 2012-2016 | .601 | 1.84 |
| Los Angeles | 2014-2018 | .555 | 0.93 |
| Los Angeles | 2017-2021 | .551 | 0.86 |
| Washington DC | 2014-2018 | .547 | 0.76 |
| 71 observations falling between .452 and .547 | |||
| New York | 2014-2018 | .452 | -1.12 |
| New York | 2017-2021 | .450 | -1.15 |
| Phoenix | 2016-2020 | .440 | -1.36 |
| Phoenix | 2014-2018 | .439 | -1.38 |
| Phoenix | 2015-2019 | .437 | -1.41 |
| Detroit | 2015-2019 | .436 | -1.43 |
| Philadelphia | 2012-2016 | .433 | -1.50 |
| Detroit | 2016-2020 | .407 | -2.02 |
| Detroit | 2017-2021 | .376 | -2.63 |
| Detroit | 2018-2022 | .364 | -2.88 |
Table A: Winning % over five-year time horizons dating back to 2012
Table A highlights some revealing observations. First, the city of Boston has been in a league of their own. The worst five-year winning percentage for Boston sports teams—.601 from 2012-2016—is considerably higher than the best for any other city. Table B provides a list of the highest five-year winning percentage for each 4-sport city and further illustrates Boston’s absolute and relative excellence. More on this phenomenon in our next article as we delve into the ten-year winning percentage component of the daily city misery. The data from Table B also reveals that New York and Phoenix teams could not even muster one five-year stretch of a .500 or greater winning percentage since 2012. Even Detroit was able to squeak out a .504 winning percentage during that time.
| 4-Sport City | Years | Average Winning % |
| Boston | 2015-2019 | .653 |
| Los Angeles | 2014-2018 | .555 |
| Washington DC | 2014-2018 | .547 |
| Philadelphia | 2018-2022 | .546 |
| Dallas | 2012-2016 | .544 |
| San Francisco | 2012-2016 | .541 |
| Minneapolis | 2017-2021 | .539 |
| Denver | 2012-2016 | .533 |
| Miami | 2018-2022 | .523 |
| Chicago | 2012-2016 | .517 |
| Detroit | 2013-2017 | .504 |
| New York | 2012-2016 | .495 |
| Phoenix | 2013-2017 | .479 |
Table B: Highest winning % over five-year time horizons dating back to 2012 for each city
A second observation from Table A seems to point out that the highest five-year winning percentage for Boston may be as unprecedented as the lowest five-year winning percentage for Detroit. Based on the standard deviations being +2.88 and -2.88, respectively, a five-year winning percentage to be greater than Boston or less than Detroit has the same probability of 1/50,000. Table C provides a list of the lowest five-year winning percentage for each 4-sport city. When comparing the data from Table B and Table C, the relative superiority of Boston’s best five-year stretch (.098 greater than LA) exceeds the relative inferiority of Detroit’s worst five-year stretch (.069 less than Philly). Both winning percentages are pretty incredible and a bit unbelievable, albeit for different reasons.2
| 4-Sport City | Years | Average Winning % |
| Boston | 2012-2016 | .601 |
| Los Angeles | 2015-2019 | .539 |
| Dallas | 2016-2020 | .510 |
| Denver | 2014-2018 | .504 |
| San Francisco | 2016-2020 | .499 |
| Miami | 2015-2019 | .489 |
| Minneapolis | 2012-2016 | .473 |
| Chicago | 2018-2022 | .468 |
| Washington DC | 2018-2022 | .468 |
| New York | 2017-2021 | .450 |
| Phoenix | 2015-2019 | .437 |
| Philadelphia | 2012-2016 | .433 |
| Detroit | 2018-2022 | .364 |
Table C: Lowest winning % over five-year time horizons dating back to 2012 for each city
Since the data for this analysis only went back to 2012, I am not sure this has convinced my son-in-law of the unprecedented nature of Detroit’s miserable five-year winning percentage from 2018-2022. But he has admitted that unprecedented or not, Detroit fans have had a bad go of it in recent years. Also, being a Chicago sports fan, he is under the impression that other components of the fan misery index may reveal that Detroit is not the only city, or team, that has dished out a large proportion of misery. To be continued . . .
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1 The seven five-year intervals are as follows: 2012-2016
2013-2017
2014-2018
2015-2019
2016-2020
2017-2021
2018-20222 As a piece of information, and providing additional evidence to the unprecedented nature of Boston and Detroit’s five-year stretches, the best five-year winning percentage for a 3-sport city is Milwaukee at .632 from 2018-2022. The worst five-year winning percentage for a 3-sport city is Cleveland at .427 form 2015-2019.
Fan Misery Index 