“Tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.” Detroit Lions fans have the entire off-season to decide whether that is true or not. However, for baseball fans, pitchers and catchers arrive at spring training in the next few weeks.
Previous articles have focused on winning percentage as it relates to city misery. This article will begin our exploration on the five- and ten-year winning percentages as it relates to team misery. While this article will focus on MLB teams, future articles will concentrate on NFL, NBA, and NHL teams, respectively.
Table A provides the average winning percentage for each MLB team over the past five years (2019-2023) and ten years (2014-2023). The teams are listed in descending order according to their winning percentage. So, in terms of fan misery, the further down the list equates to higher levels of misery.
| MLB Team | 5-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. | MLB Team | 10-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | .665 | 3.01 | Los Angeles Dodgers | .624 | 3.02 |
| Tampa Bay | .604 | 1.89 | Houston | .568 | 1.65 |
| Atlanta | .599 | 1.80 | New York Yankees | .563 | 1.52 |
| Houston | .588 | 1.60 | Cleveland | .549 | 1.20 |
| New York Yankees | .574 | 1.35 | Tampa Bay | .546 | 1.11 |
| Milwaukee | .543 | 0.79 | St. Louis | .541 | 0.99 |
| Minnesota | .538 | 0.70 | Chicago Cubs | .533 | 0.81 |
| Cleveland | .538 | 0.68 | Atlanta | .532 | 0.77 |
| St. Louis | .529 | 0.54 | Milwaukee | .521 | 0.52 |
| Toronto | .525 | 0.46 | Boston | .518 | 0.44 |
| San Francisco Giants | .521 | 0.39 | Toronto | .518 | 0.44 |
| San Diego | .518 | 0.34 | Seattle | .509 | 0.22 |
| Philadelphia | .513 | 0.24 | San Francisco Giants | .505 | 0.12 |
| New York Mets | .505 | 0.09 | New York Mets | .501 | 0.03 |
| Seattle | .505 | 0.09 | Minnesota | .501 | 0.01 |
| Chicago Cubs | .499 | -0.03 | Washington | .498 | -0.04 |
| Chicago White Sox | .496 | -0.07 | Oakland Athletics | .486 | -0.34 |
| Boston | .490 | -0.19 | Los Angeles Angels | .483 | -0.41 |
| Oakland Athletics | .482 | -0.33 | San Diego | .479 | -0.51 |
| Cincinnati | .476 | -0.43 | Philadelphia | .475 | -0.62 |
| Los Angeles Angels | .451 | -0.90 | Chicago White Sox | .468 | -0.78 |
| Arizona | .448 | -0.95 | Texas | .463 | -0.89 |
| Miami | .446 | -0.99 | Arizona | .463 | -0.90 |
| Baltimore | .441 | -1.07 | Baltimore | .460 | -0.97 |
| Texas | .439 | -1.11 | Pittsburgh | .458 | -1.03 |
| Washington | .437 | -1.14 | Colorado | .450 | -1.21 |
| Colorado | .423 | -1.40 | Cincinnati | .450 | -1.22 |
| Detroit | .410 | -1.63 | Miami | .450 | -1.22 |
| Kansas City | .400 | -1.82 | Kansas City | .449 | -1.24 |
| Pittsburgh | .394 | -1.92 | Detroit | .439 | -1.48 |
Table A: Average winning % over the past five and ten years
As is our practice, we like to have the data tell the story. First, a general observation regarding the nature of statistics. We have discussed in previous articles that in situations in which outcomes are roughly 50/501, as you increase the number of observations, the variability of the outcomes will reduce. This is easily seen in the difference between the highest and lowest winning percentages for five years (.271) versus that for ten years (.185). In addition, we see the highest winning percentage for five years being .041 higher and the lowest winning percentage for five years being .045 lower than those for ten years. So, over the long haul, the winning percentages for all teams should move toward .500.2
Second, although this website is primarily devoted to the misery experienced by sports fans for cities and specific teams, it is very difficult to overlook the extraordinary winning percentages for the Los Angeles Dodgers over both the five and ten-year horizons. We have only provided a little background on the statistic known as standard deviation, but enough to realize that a standard deviation greater than +3 or less than -3 has a probability 3/1000. A closer look at Table A reveals that the Los Angeles Dodgers have had a winning percentage greater than +3 standard deviations for both their most recent five and ten-year time horizons. The cynical fan may suggest that the Dodgers consistently have one of the highest MLB payrolls, but one must recognize that the large sums of money have been strategically well spent when it comes to winning regular season games. In fact, let’s take a closer look at this last statement to see how “strategic” the Dodgers have been in relation to the rest of the league when it comes to spending money on their payroll.
We will define a concept called strategic dollar use (SDU). SDU is a relative measure that tries to provide some insight into how well the money you spend in payroll dollars translates to regular season winning percentage. In order to accomplish this, we will compare the standard deviation for winning percentages with the standard deviation for payroll expenditures for each specific team. SDU will be the difference between these two statistics. The notion is that a higher SDU equates to a more effective use of payroll dollars. Table B provides the SDU for each team over the past five years and Table C provides the SDU for each team over the past ten years.
| MLB Team | 5-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. | 5-year Average Payroll (million) | Std. Dev. | SDU |
| Tampa Bay | .604 | 1.89 | 56 | -1.38 | 3.27 |
| Cleveland | .538 | 0.68 | 64 | -1.20 | 1.88 |
| Atlanta | .599 | 1.80 | 137 | 0.44 | 1.36 |
| Milwaukee | .543 | 0.79 | 96 | -0.49 | 1.28 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | .665 | 3.01 | 198 | 1.79 | 1.22 |
| Oakland Athletics | .482 | -0.33 | 56 | -1.39 | 1.06 |
| Minnesota | .538 | 0.70 | 107 | -0.24 | 0.94 |
| Houston | .588 | 1.60 | 152 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Seattle | .505 | 0.09 | 95 | -0.51 | 0.60 |
| Baltimore | .441 | -1.07 | 48 | -1.57 | 0.50 |
| Miami | .446 | -0.99 | 60 | -1.30 | 0.31 |
| Toronto | .525 | 0.46 | 125 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| St. Louis | .529 | 0.54 | 132 | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| Cincinnati | .476 | -0.43 | 97 | -0.47 | 0.04 |
| San Francisco Giants | .521 | 0.39 | 139 | 0.48 | -0.09 |
| Chicago White Sox | .496 | -0.07 | 126 | 0.18 | -0.25 |
| Arizona | .448 | -0.95 | 90 | -0.62 | -0.33 |
| Pittsburgh | .394 | -1.92 | 47 | -1.59 | -0.33 |
| San Diego | .518 | 0.34 | 152 | 0.77 | -0.43 |
| New York Yankees | .574 | 1.35 | 203 | 1.92 | -0.57 |
| Chicago Cubs | .499 | -0.03 | 149 | 0.69 | -0.72 |
| Kansas City | .400 | -1.82 | 74 | -0.98 | -0.84 |
| Philadelphia | .513 | 0.24 | 169 | 1.15 | -0.91 |
| Detroit | .410 | -1.63 | 89 | -0.64 | -0.99 |
| Texas | .439 | -1.11 | 115 | -0.07 | -1.04 |
| Washington | .437 | -1.14 | 117 | -0.01 | -1.13 |
| Boston | .490 | -0.19 | 168 | 1.12 | -1.31 |
| Colorado | .423 | -1.40 | 121 | 0.07 | -1.47 |
| New York Mets | .505 | 0.09 | 195 | 1.74 | -1.65 |
| Los Angeles Angels | .451 | -0.90 | 156 | 1.59 | -1.69 |
Table B: SDU over the past five years
| MLB Team | 10-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. | 10-year Average Payroll (million) | Std. Dev. | SDU |
| Tampa Bay | .546 | 1.11 | 66 | -1.53 | 2.64 |
| Cleveland | .549 | 1.20 | 84 | -1.05 | 2.25 |
| Houston | .568 | 1.65 | 123 | 0.00 | 1.65 |
| Milwaukee | .521 | 0.52 | 94 | -0.77 | 1.29 |
| Oakland Athletics | .486 | -0.34 | 68 | -1.47 | 1.13 |
| Atlanta | .532 | 0.77 | 122 | -0.02 | 0.79 |
| St. Louis | .541 | 0.99 | 133 | 0.27 | 0.72 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | .624 | 3.02 | 215 | 2.48 | 0.54 |
| Seattle | .509 | 0.22 | 113 | -0.26 | 0.48 |
| Pittsburgh | .458 | -1.03 | 68 | -1.48 | 0.45 |
| Minnesota | .501 | 0.01 | 108 | -0.40 | 0.41 |
| Chicago Cubs | .533 | 0.81 | 142 | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| Miami | .450 | -1.22 | 71 | -1.38 | 0.16 |
| Toronto | .518 | 0.44 | 135 | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| Baltimore | .460 | -0.97 | 88 | -0.94 | -0.03 |
| Arizona | .463 | -0.90 | 95 | -0.74 | -0.16 |
| Chicago White Sox | .468 | -0.78 | 110 | -0.33 | -0.45 |
| Washington | .498 | -0.04 | 140 | 0.48 | -0.52 |
| Kansas City | .449 | -1.24 | 96 | -0.71 | -0.53 |
| San Diego | .479 | -0.51 | 123 | 0.02 | -0.53 |
| New York Yankees | .563 | 1.52 | 202 | 2.15 | -0.63 |
| Cincinnati | .450 | -1.22 | 103 | -0.54 | -0.68 |
| San Francisco Giants | .505 | 0.12 | 157 | 0.92 | -0.80 |
| New York Mets | .501 | 0.03 | 158 | 0.94 | -0.91 |
| Colorado | .450 | -1.21 | 117 | -0.14 | -1.07 |
| Boston | .518 | 0.44 | 181 | 1.56 | -1.12 |
| Texas | .463 | -0.89 | 132 | 0.24 | -1.13 |
| Los Angeles Angels | .483 | -0.41 | 157 | 0.92 | -1.33 |
| Philadelphia | .475 | -0.62 | 150 | 0.74 | -1.36 |
| Detroit | .439 | -1.48 | 128 | 0.16 | -1.64 |
Table C: SDU over the past ten years
Using SDU as a proxy for how effective a team has translated dollars into regular season wins, the Los Angeles Dodgers have certainly been one of the better teams in this aspect. When it comes to the big spending teams3 over the past five and ten years, the Dodgers seem to know where and when to invest big dollars better than the others.4
Even though they may be the best of the big spenders, the Dodgers trail several teams when it comes to effective spending. Tampa Bay is in a league of their own and Cleveland would be as well if not for the Rays. Milwaukee also scores very well in both the five- and ten-year SDU numbers. These small and mid-market teams seem to have figured out how to compete in a league with a very uneven playing field.5
But, in terms of misery, teams like the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Mets provide their fans with a type of misery we have not referenced in any previous article and is not part of our formal fan misery index. If spending exorbitant amounts of money is supposed to yield high winning percentages, and it does more times than not, these teams have raised the expectations of their fan base on a yearly basis, only to dash them with winning percentages significantly below these expectations. Perhaps the low winning percentages over the past ten years of the low spending teams—Pittsburgh, Miami, Baltimore to name a few, are much more palatable because of the low expectations. In any case, we still posit that losing stinks no matter what the initial expectations.
Finally, some of the baseball fans that have received substantial misery over the past several years seem to have reason to be optimistic for the coming years. For example, Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, and Detroit all had winning percentages in 2023 that were quite a bit higher than their five or ten-year averages. Arizona made it all the way to the World Series and Texas won it all. Unfortunately, it appears that fans of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Colorado, and the Los Angeles Angels may have relatively more winning percentage misery for the next several years.
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1 Obviously this assumes that either (a) each event (game) is a 50/50 proposition, or (b) recent “good” teams will fall upon hard times in the future as often as recent “bad” teams will rise above their current station. Although the MLB has perhaps the most uneven playing field among the four major sports, we do see some signs of this phenomenon at play. Note in particular the 2023 seasons for Baltimore, Texas, Miami, Arizona, and St. Louis.
2 In looking at Table A, note that the top seven 5-year winning percentage teams all have lower 10-year winning percentages. Also note that the bottom ten 5-year winning percentage teams all have higher 10-year winning percentages.
3 The top six spending teams over the past five years in descending order: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia, Boston, Los Angeles Angels.
The top six spending teams over the past ten years in descending order: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels.
4 In looking at the SDU, it struck one of the authors that the data may be revealing a phenomenon that could be termed the “Dombroski Effect.” Over the past ten years, general manager Dave Dombroski has brought three teams to the World Series. He has done this for the Tigers, Red Sox, and the Phillies. But, as the data shows, these are three of the bottom five teams in the SDU ranking. Our conclusion is that Dombroski can certainly raise the fortunes of your baseball team, but ownership must be prepared to significantly overpay for this outcome.
5 To provide some context for this playing field, the difference between the average payroll over the past ten years for the highest spending team (Los Angeles Dodgers) and that of the lowest spending team (Tampa Bay Rays) is over 3x as big. This magnitude increases to over 4x as big when comparing the past five years.
Fan Misery Index 