Most of our previous articles dealt with winning percentage as it relates to city misery. Our last article began our series on winning percentage as it relates to team misery for the MLB. This article will continue our exploration of the five- and ten-year winning percentages as it relates to team misery, but will focus on the NFL.
Table A provides the average winning percentage for each NFL team over the past five years (2019-2023) and ten years (2014-2023). The teams are listed in descending order according to their winning percentage. So, in terms of fan misery, the further down the list equates to higher levels of misery.
| NFL Team | 5-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. | NFL Team | 10-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. |
| Kansas City | .760 | 2.09 | Kansas City | .718 | 2.22 |
| Buffalo | .709 | 1.68 | New England | .636 | 1.39 |
| Green Bay | .678 | 1.43 | Pittsburgh | .633 | 1.37 |
| Baltimore | .677 | 1.42 | Green Bay | .624 | 1.27 |
| San Francisco 49’ers | .649 | 1.20 | Seattle | .613 | 1.16 |
| New Orleans | .607 | 0.85 | Baltimore | .601 | 1.04 |
| Dallas | .599 | 0.79 | Dallas | .599 | 1.03 |
| Pittsburgh | .585 | 0.68 | Buffalo | .598 | 1.02 |
| Seattle | .582 | 0.65 | New Orleans | .585 | 0.88 |
| Tampa Bay | .578 | 0.63 | Philadelphia | .572 | 0.75 |
| Philadelphia | .569 | 0.55 | Minnesota | .568 | 0.71 |
| Los Angeles Rams | .555 | 0.44 | Los Angeles Rams | .566 | 0.69 |
| Tennessee | .544 | 0.35 | Indianapolis | .501 | 0.03 |
| Minnesota | .542 | 0.34 | Los Angeles Chargers | .496 | -0.01 |
| Miami | .529 | 0.23 | Miami | .496 | -0.02 |
| Cleveland | .519 | 0.15 | Cincinnati | .490 | -0.08 |
| New England | .496 | -0.03 | San Francisco 49’ers | .481 | -0.17 |
| Indianapolis | .490 | -0.08 | Las Vegas | .478 | -0.20 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | .478 | -0.18 | Tennessee | .472 | -0.26 |
| Cincinnati | .455 | -0.37 | Denver | .468 | -0.30 |
| Oakland Raiders | .438 | -0.50 | Arizona | .462 | -0.36 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | .432 | -0.54 | Detroit | .460 | -0.38 |
| Detroit | .395 | -0.85 | Tampa Bay | .458 | -0.40 |
| Arizona | .392 | -0.87 | Atlanta | .455 | -0.43 |
| Chicago | .388 | -0.90 | Houston | .453 | -0.45 |
| Denver | .386 | -0.92 | Charlotte | .436 | -0.63 |
| Atlanta | .385 | -0.93 | Oakland Raiders | .407 | -0.92 |
| Houston | .381 | -0.96 | St. Louis Rams | .407 | -0.92 |
| Washington | .355 | -1.17 | Washington | .399 | -1.00 |
| New York Giants | .354 | -1.17 | Chicago | .388 | -1.11 |
| Jacksonville | .334 | -1.33 | Cleveland | .375 | -1.24 |
| New York Jets | .324 | -1.41 | New York Giants | .371 | -1.28 |
| Charlotte | .290 | -1.69 | New York Jets | .337 | -1.62 |
| Jacksonville | .330 | -1.70 |
Table A: Average winning % over the past five and ten years1
As is our practice, we like to have the data tell the story. First, let’s once again begin with a general observation regarding the nature of statistics. We have discussed in previous articles that in situations in which outcomes are roughly 50/502, as you increase the number of observations, the variability of the outcomes will reduce. Similarly to the situation with MLB teams, this is easily seen in the NFL data with the difference between the highest and lowest winning percentages for five years (.470) versus that for ten years (.388). In addition, we see the highest winning percentage for five years being .042 higher and the lowest winning percentage for five years being .040 lower than those for ten years. So, over the long haul, the winning percentages for all teams should move toward .500.3
Second, there are several NFL teams that have provided their fans with dreadfully low winning percentages over the past ten years. This may be particularly painful for NFL fans as you usually have to live with your misery for an entire week before you have a chance at rehabilitation. These teams include Jacksonville, both New York teams, Chicago, and Washington. Cleveland provided plenty of misery over the past ten years as well, but their most recent five-year improvement indicates that their fans had really high misery from 2014-2018. This suggests an alternative way to assess NFL team misery in terms of team winning percentage.
| Years | NFL Team | 5-year Average Winning % | Std. Dev. |
| 2012-2016 | Jacksonville | .213 | -2.31 |
| 2013-2017 | Cleveland | .188 | -2.51 |
| 2014-2018 | Cleveland | .232 | -2.16 |
| 2015-2019 | Cleveland | .219 | -2.26 |
| 2016-2020 | New York Jets | .288 | -1.71 |
| 2017-2021 | New York Jets | .272 | -1.83 |
| 2018-2022 | Jacksonville | .291 | -1.68 |
| 2019-2023 | Charlotte | .290 | -1.69 |
Table B: NFL team with the lowest average winning % over the listed five years
Table B provides the NFL team with the lowest average five-year average winning % for the years listed in the table. Beginning in 2012, Cleveland’s .188 winning percentage over the five seasons from 2014-2018 is the only five-year winning percentage under .200 for any sports team in any of the four major sports. Jacksonville’s five-year winning percentage of .213 from 2012-2016 is the only one that even rivals the three successive five-year runs for Cleveland beginning in 2013. This certainly lends credence to the notion that Cleveland Browns fans can lay claim to the most miserable five-year stretches when compared to any other NFL fan base. But what if we consider a more extended notion of misery. Jacksonville has the lowest ten-year winning percentage, but it is not much below that of the New York Jets. After that, it is a bit of a jump to the third worst team—the New York Giants. Jaguar and Jet fans have truly had a brutal ten-year stretch, but is one worse off than the other? What is revealed if we look at their records in a slightly different way?
| NFL Team | Times in Bottom Five |
| Jacksonville | 8 |
| New York Jets | 6 |
| Cleveland | 5 |
| New York Giants | 5 |
| Tampa Bay | 3 |
| Chicago | 2 |
| Cincinnati | 2 |
| Detroit | 2 |
| Oakland | 2 |
| San Francisco | 2 |
| Tennessee | 2 |
| Charlotte | 1 |
| Las Vegas | 1 |
| Washington | 1 |
Table C: Beginning in 2012, the number of times an NFL team has been one of the lowest five in terms of five-year winning %
Table C provides information about the five-year winning percentage beginning with the years 2012-2016 and ending with the years 2019-2023. This provides eight different five-year scenarios. With that being said, one can see that Jacksonville’s average five-year winning percentage has been one of the five lowest in each of those eight scenarios. Not surprisingly, the New York Jets have been among the lowest five teams on six different occasions. Based on the winning percentages over the past two seasons, Jacksonville fans seem to have some reason for hope.4 Unfortunately, Jets’ fans misery seems to continue unabated, especially when a certain Achilles tendon ruptured a few plays into the 2023 season.
So, in terms of winning percentages, it seems as though Cleveland Browns fans can lay claim to the most miserable 5-year stretch that any sports fan has had to endure. On the other hand, both Jacksonville and the New York Jets have been dishing out almost as much misery, but over a longer period of time. However you slice it, these football fans need the same hug as the one needed by Detroit city fans.
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1 Due to the movement of teams to a different city over the past ten years—St. Louis Rams to Los Angeles, Oakland Raiders to Las Vegas, and San Diego Chargers to Los Angeles—there is an unequal number of teams with data for the last five years versus that of ten years.
2 This assumes that either (a) each event (game) is a 50/50 proposition, or (b) recent “good” teams will fall upon hard times in the future as often as recent “bad” teams will rise above their current station. New England is a prime example of the first phenomenon while Cleveland is probably the best example of the opposite phenomenon.
3 In looking at Table A, note that the top six 5-year winning percentage teams all have lower 10-year winning percentages. Also note that ten out of the bottom eleven 5-year winning percentage teams all have higher 10-year winning percentages (the exception is Jacksonville).
4 Jacksonville had winning percentages of .529 and .529 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The New York Jets had winning percentages of .412 and .346 in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Fan Misery Index 