What is it and how is it calculated?
The fan misery index (FMI) is a concept that attempts to quantify the misery experienced by sports fans of a particular team and of a particular city. The remainder of this article will describe how we have defined fan misery, and perhaps even more important, how we measure it.
Fan misery can take many shapes and forms because it can be experienced for a wide variety of reasons. Some reasons are based on facts (my team has not won a championship in 45 years), and some are based on perception (my team always gets a raw deal from referees). Some reasons are objective in nature (my team has a .421 winning percentage over the past two years), and some are relative in nature (out of all NHL teams, my team ranks dead last in terms of playoff victories over the past 15 years). Finally, some reasons are quantitative in nature (my team has participated in the playoffs 10% of the time over the past 20 years), and some are qualitative in nature (every year my team seems to lose its most important player to injury).
In light of this, and thus realizing that our index will not be able to include every factor that contributes to a fan’s misery, our FMI will consider only those factors that are both significant and quantifiable. These quantifiable factors will be based on facts and can provide both objective and relative information. As a start, our FMI will consist of three broad concepts—daily misery, playoff misery, and championship misery. Furthermore, an index is calculated for (a) each sports team competing in one of the four major sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL), and (b) each city that has at least one sports team competing in any of the four major sports leagues.
A daily misery index for a team is calculated using the winning percentage for that team over the past five years and the past ten years. A daily misery index for a city will use the combined winning percentages for all sports teams associated with that city over the past five years and the past ten years.
A playoff misery index for a team is calculated using (a) playoff participation over the past five and ten years, (b) playoff performance over the past five and ten years, and (c) the length of time since the last playoff appearance. Once again, a playoff misery index for a city will be a combination of the indices for their teams over the past five and ten years.
Finally, a championship misery index for a team is calculated using (a) the length of time since the last championship, or in the case of teams with no championships, the length of time they have been in the league, and (b) the number of championships within the past ten years. A championship misery index for a city is calculated accordingly. Table 1 illustrates both the concept and measurement of the FMI. We will use the FMI and its many components in future articles to get a better sense of the level of misery experienced by each team’s and each city’s fan base.
| Fan Misery Index | ||||
| Components | Who? | |||
| Name | Measure | Time Frame | Team | City |
| Daily | Winning % | Last 5 years | ||
| Last 10 years | ||||
| Playoff | Participation % | Last 5 years | ||
| Last 10 years | ||||
| Performance | Last 5 years | |||
| Last 10 years | ||||
| Drought | Since last one | |||
| Championship | Drought | Since last one | ||
| Quantity | Last 10 years | |||
| TOTAL | ||||
Table 1: Breakdown of the components used to calculate the fan misery index.
Table 2 provides a list of the sports cities with their associated teams. For our analysis of team and city misery, we are only using teams that have played in a particular city since 2012. For example, the Montreal Expos played baseball from 1969-2004 at which time they relocated to Washington DC and changed their name to the Nationals. We will utilize data for the Washington Nationals for both team and city indices beginning in 2005 but will not use Montreal Expos data for either the team or city of Montreal indices.
| 4-Sport City | Baseball | Football | Basketball | Hockey |
| Boston | Red Sox | Patriots | Celtics | Bruins |
| Chicago | Cubs White Sox | Bears | Bulls | Blackhawks |
| Dallas | Rangers | Cowboys | Mavericks | Stars |
| Denver | Rockies | Broncos | Nuggets | Avalanche |
| Detroit | Tigers | Lions | Pistons | Red Wings |
| Los Angeles | Angels Dodgers | Chargers1 Rams2 | Clippers Lakers | Ducks Kings |
| Miami | Marlins | Dolphins | Heat | Panthers |
| Minneapolis | Twins | Vikings | Timberwolves | Wild |
| New York | Mets Yankees | Giants Jets | Knicks Nets | Islanders Rangers |
| Philadelphia | Phillies | Eagles | 76’ers | Flyers |
| Phoenix | Diamondbacks | Cardinals | Suns | Coyotes |
| San Francisco3 | Athletics Giants | 49’ers Raiders4 | Warriors | Sharks |
| Washington DC | Nationals | Commanders | Bullets | Capitals |
| 3-Sport City | Baseball | Football | Basketball | Hockey |
| Atlanta | Braves | Falcons | Hawks | |
| Charlotte | Panthers | Hornets | Hurricanes5 | |
| Cleveland | Guardians | Browns | Cavaliers | |
| Houston | Astros | Texans | Rockets | |
| Milwaukee | Brewers | Packers6 | Bucks | |
| Pittsburgh | Pirates | Steelers | Penguins | |
| Seattle | Mariners | Seahawks | Kraken7 | |
| Tampa Bay | Rays | Buccaneers | Lightning | |
| Toronto | Blue Jays | Raptors | Maple Leafs | |
| 2-Sport City | Baseball | Football | Basketball | Hockey |
| Baltimore | Orioles | Ravens | ||
| Buffalo | Bills | Sabres | ||
| Cincinnati | Reds | Bengals | ||
| Indianapolis | Colts | Pacers | ||
| Kansas City | Royals | Chiefs | ||
| Las Vegas | Raiders8 | Golden Knights9 | ||
| Nashville | Titans | Predators | ||
| New Orleans | Saints | Pelicans | ||
| St. Louis | Cardinals | Rams10 | Blues | |
| 1-Sport City | Baseball | Football | Basketball | Hockey |
| Calgary | Flames | |||
| Columbus | Blue Jackets | |||
| Edmonton | Oilers | |||
| Jacksonville | Jaguars | |||
| Memphis | Grizzlies | |||
| Montreal | Canadians | |||
| New Jersey | Devils | |||
| Oklahoma City | Thunder | |||
| Orlando | Magic | |||
| Ottawa | Senators | |||
| Portland | Trail Blazers | |||
| Sacramento | Kings | |||
| Salt Lake City | Jazz | |||
| San Antonio | Spurs | |||
| San Diego | Padres | Chargers11 | ||
| Vancouver | Canucks | |||
| Winnipeg | Jets |
Table 2: List of Sports Cities with at least one sports team in one of the four major sports leagues.
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1 Los Angeles Chargers commenced play in Los Angeles during the 2017 NFL season.
2 Los Angeles Rams commenced play in Los Angeles during the 2016 NFL season.
3 Since they play in the Bay Area, we have included both the Oakland Athletics, Oakland Raiders, and the San Jose Shark as part of the San Francisco city index.
4 Oakland Raiders last season in Oakland was the 2019 NFL season.
5 Even though they play in Raleigh, the Carolina Hurricanes are included in the Charlotte city index.
6 Even though they play in Green Bay, the Green Bay Packers are included in the Milwaukee city index.
7 Seattle Kraken commenced play in Seattle during the 2021-22 NHL season.
8 Las Vegas Raiders commenced play in Las Vegas during the 2020 NFL season.
9 Las Vegas Golden Knights commenced play in Las Vegas during the 2017-18 NHL season.
10 St. Louis Rams last season in St. Louis was the 2015 NFL season.
11 San Diego Chargers last season in San Diego was the 2016 NFL season.
Fan Misery Index 